Monday, January 05, 2015

Comment regarding article about One Term Tony

The original article is here.

This article is too tongue-in-cheek - perhaps because they feel we need to laugh, or we'll cry - and so it paints a picture that is just too far on the side of fantasy. Real political parties don't try to lose power. If there were one (major) party that was capable of going off the deep end, it would be the Libs, because their policy decisions don't have to be vetted through a caucus. There has been a little bit of rumblings of whinging from Liberal backbenchers occasionally, but that's fairly normal.

I think this article uncovers a reality that perhaps even it doesn't want to acknowledge. In 2013 the Liberal Party were faced with an election they could not lose - a hung parliament being run by a female prime minister who was bringing in an unpopular tax. If you can't lose the election, it is an opportunity to bring in a leader who slashes and burns the country so that they can shape it into a country that best suits your political purposes. With that agenda in mind, consider this: Abbott is trying to do in one term what Howard also tried to do in four terms - shift the political landscape to make it undeniably more favourable towards the Liberal Party. Blatant lies and attacks on the marginalised are not radicalising the masses, but are apathising them. They have big ticket items that might fail - the GP co-pay, for instance - but they are a mixture of toe in the water policies (how much of a stir will this create?) and ingenious smokescreens for each other. Think back over all the really disgusting policies: GP co-pays, six months of starvation for the unemployed, slashing funding to the ABC, deregulating university fees. Now think about these things that you noticed in amongst all those - a massive cut to our foreign aid, an increase in our deficit, rising unemployment, and the treatment of refugees. Now think about things you perhaps didn't even hear about. There are just so many. It is designed to wear down and tire out those people who aren't going to vote for him anyway. People are forced to forget so many despicable things.

Their re-election model will be simple: a straightforward message appealing to middle Australia (my guess is it will be something like "We'll Make The Tough Decisions" - but it might equally play to something that arises closer to election time, since they get to choose when the election will be), funded by Big Business who know that the Libs will look after them. You don't need to win the people. You don't need to win the debates. You just need to win the elections. The ALP is playing small target politics, waiting for the Libs to lose. But that just means the Libs have no opposition - they have pulled out the opposition's teeth, making them irrelevant by saying outlandish things and not getting any pushback. If the ALP found themselves a powerful, charismatic leader, then the Libs might get rattled, and Tony would probably be gone (and Turnbull might take his place). Again, that is what would give them the best chance of winning the election. But there are no powerful, charismatic ALP leaders to be found.

Abbott et al are not crazy. They are idealists. They really believe that killing welfare and freeing up the market are the best things they can do for Australia. But they are also realists. They daren't throw power away. Better to scorch the political earth and rule over the smoldering ruins.

No comments: